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	<title>Alphaverse.com&#187; The Black Swan</title>
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	<link>http://www.alphaverse.com</link>
	<description>Life, the Multiverse and Everything...</description>
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		<item>
		<title>&#8220;Federal Reserve &#8216;Will Be Gone&#8217; In 25 Years!&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/federal-reserve-will-be-gone-in-25-years/2010/10</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/federal-reserve-will-be-gone-in-25-years/2010/10#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Oct 2010 09:45:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hyperborean</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economic models]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finance & Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nassim Taleb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/?p=7660</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[He said it over and over again, yet he's now even more eloquent. Taleb states that: <i>"Federal Reserve 'Will Be Gone' In 25 Years, Top Financial Mind Predicts, Despite Geithner's Vote Of Confidence" </i> The impact and importance of the underestimated book The Black Swan still doesn't seize to amaze me...
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<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/carmen-m-reinhart-eight-hundred-years-of-financial-folly/2010/05' rel='bookmark' title='Carmen M. Reinhart: Eight Hundred Years of Financial Folly'>Carmen M. Reinhart: Eight Hundred Years of Financial Folly</a></li>
<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/taleb-strikes-again-krugman-and-geithner-are-bad-for-society/2010/10' rel='bookmark' title='Taleb strikes again; don&#8217;t listen to Krugman and Geithner'>Taleb strikes again; don&#8217;t listen to Krugman and Geithner</a></li>
<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/videos-carmen-reinhart-co-author-of-this-time-is-different-on-mega-post/2010/05' rel='bookmark' title='Videos: Carmen Reinhart, co-author, of This Time is Different On Mega Post!'>Videos: Carmen Reinhart, co-author, of This Time is Different On Mega Post!</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Taleb strikes again; don&#8217;t listen to Krugman and Geithner</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/taleb-strikes-again-krugman-and-geithner-are-bad-for-society/2010/10</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/taleb-strikes-again-krugman-and-geithner-are-bad-for-society/2010/10#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Oct 2010 09:33:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hyperborean</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Finance & Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Complexity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nassim Taleb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/?p=7656</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Since Tim Geithner did not predict the economic crisis, Nassim Taleb has no interest in listening to him talk about it now. The author of The Black Swan, a book about risk and probability theory, told National Journal&#8217;s Matthew Cooper that he did not listen to Geithner, who preceded him at the Washington Ideas Forum. [...]
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<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/video-nassim-taleb-on-risk-and-robustness-in-the-economy/2010/06' rel='bookmark' title='Video: Nassim Taleb on Risk and Robustness in the Economy'>Video: Nassim Taleb on Risk and Robustness in the Economy</a></li>
<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/federal-reserve-will-be-gone-in-25-years/2010/10' rel='bookmark' title='&#8220;Federal Reserve &#8216;Will Be Gone&#8217; In 25 Years!&#8221;'>&#8220;Federal Reserve &#8216;Will Be Gone&#8217; In 25 Years!&#8221;</a></li>
<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/interview-nocera-on-the-crisis-and-all-the-devils-are-here/2010/12' rel='bookmark' title='Interview: Nocera on the Crisis and All the Devils Are Here'>Interview: Nocera on the Crisis and All the Devils Are Here</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.alphaverse.com/taleb-strikes-again-krugman-and-geithner-are-bad-for-society/2010/10/feed</wfw:commentRss>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Is Honesty A Conscious Decision?</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/is-honesty-a-conscious-decision/2009/11</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/is-honesty-a-conscious-decision/2009/11#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:32:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>The Long Tailor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Collapse of Society]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Complexity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/is-honesty-a-conscious-decision/2009/11</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The fellows over at The Situationist blog have found another interesting read (via Seed Magazine). This article is about honesty &#38; whether being honest is a conscious decision. I think the scientists behind these experiments need to add more participants to future studies. I suggest the following  opposing participants; Buffett &#38; Madoff. Click Here To [...]
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<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/free-book-neuroeconomics-decision-making-and-the-brain-%e2%80%93-ideas-from-pioneers-of-decision-research/2010/08' rel='bookmark' title='Free Book: Neuroeconomics Decision Making and the Brain – Ideas from Pioneers Of Decision Research'>Free Book: Neuroeconomics Decision Making and the Brain – Ideas from Pioneers Of Decision Research</a></li>
<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/unconscious-control-of-%e2%80%98conscious%e2%80%99-prefrontal-cognitive-control/2010/04' rel='bookmark' title='Unconscious control of ‘conscious’ prefrontal cognitive control.'>Unconscious control of ‘conscious’ prefrontal cognitive control.</a></li>
<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/the-unconscious-will-how-the-pursuit-of-goals-operates-outside-of-conscious-awareness/2010/07' rel='bookmark' title='The Unconscious Will: How the Pursuit of Goals Operates Outside of Conscious Awareness'>The Unconscious Will: How the Pursuit of Goals Operates Outside of Conscious Awareness</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Less Is More: Accuracy vs Prediction In Modeling</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/less-is-more-accuracy-vs-prediction-in-modeling/2009/11</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/less-is-more-accuracy-vs-prediction-in-modeling/2009/11#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:32:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>The Long Tailor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Collapse of Society]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Complexity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/less-is-more-accuracy-vs-prediction-in-modeling/2009/11</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Interesting paper on the trade offs between accuracy and precision in modeling (think excel)! Click Here To Download Less Is More: Accuracy vs Prediction In Modeling Introduction (By Susan Bachman, Coral Pipeline, &#38; Marry Goodreau Stoner Associates Inc) As computers have increased in speed and capacity, pipeline modeling software has kept pace. Modelers can simulate [...]
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<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/presenting-the-free-journal-of-choice-modeling/2010/03' rel='bookmark' title='Presenting The FREE! Journal Of Choice Modeling'>Presenting The FREE! Journal Of Choice Modeling</a></li>
<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/didier-sornette-diagnosis-and-prediction-of-market-rebounds-in-financial-markets/2010/04' rel='bookmark' title='Didier Sornette: Diagnosis and Prediction of Market Rebounds in Financial Markets'>Didier Sornette: Diagnosis and Prediction of Market Rebounds in Financial Markets</a></li>
<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/jonah-lehrer-on-choice-blindness/2010/08' rel='bookmark' title='Jonah Lehrer On Choice Blindness'>Jonah Lehrer On Choice Blindness</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Give Reform A Bit Of A Nudge (a la Thaler)</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/give-reform-a-bit-of-a-nudge-a-la-thaler/2009/11</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/give-reform-a-bit-of-a-nudge-a-la-thaler/2009/11#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:32:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>The Long Tailor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Collapse of Society]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Complexity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/give-reform-a-bit-of-a-nudge-a-la-thaler/2009/11</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A nice fellow implores the Australian Government to use &#8220;nudge&#8221; oriented reforms. Click Here To Read: Give Reform A Bit Of A Nudge (a la Thaler) Excerpt (Via Andrew Leigh) In Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth and Happiness, Chicago University academics Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein argue that economists and politicians have overestimated the [...]
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<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/richard-thaler-fear-of-falling-libertarian-paternalism/2010/04' rel='bookmark' title='Richard Thaler: Fear of Falling [&amp; Libertarian Paternalism]'>Richard Thaler: Fear of Falling [&amp; Libertarian Paternalism]</a></li>
<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/richard-thaler-the-economics-of-free-tv/2010/02' rel='bookmark' title='Richard Thaler: The Economics Of Free TV'>Richard Thaler: The Economics Of Free TV</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>[Oh No!] Five Myths About Our Land of Opportunity</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/oh-no-five-myths-about-our-land-of-opportunity/2009/11</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/oh-no-five-myths-about-our-land-of-opportunity/2009/11#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:32:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>The Long Tailor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Collapse of Society]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Complexity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/oh-no-five-myths-about-our-land-of-opportunity/2009/11</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I wonder what Buffett would think about this&#8230;.Makes me think of the Ovarian Lottery Click Here For An Expanded Version of 5 Myths About Our Land Of Opportunity Introduction (Via Brookings) Americans have always believed that their country is unique in providing the opportunity to get ahead. Just combine hard work with a bit of [...]
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<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/lessons-from-a-faraway-land-the-effect-of-spatial-distance-on-creative-cognition/2009/11' rel='bookmark' title='Lessons from a Faraway land: The effect of spatial distance on creative cognition'>Lessons from a Faraway land: The effect of spatial distance on creative cognition</a></li>
<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/video-ted-talk-super-star-aimee-mullins-the-opportunity-of-adversity/2010/02' rel='bookmark' title='Video: Ted Talk -Super Star, Aimee Mullins,  The opportunity of adversity'>Video: Ted Talk -Super Star, Aimee Mullins,  The opportunity of adversity</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Jim Chanos Presentation: Ten Lessons from the Financial Crisis that investors will soon forget</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/jim-chanos-presentation-ten-lessons-from-the-financial-crisis-that-investors-will-soon-forget/2009/11</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/jim-chanos-presentation-ten-lessons-from-the-financial-crisis-that-investors-will-soon-forget/2009/11#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:32:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>The Long Tailor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Collapse of Society]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Complexity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/jim-chanos-presentation-ten-lessons-from-the-financial-crisis-that-investors-will-soon-forget/2009/11</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A big thanks to Guru Focus &#38; My Investing Notebook for finding this. Related posts: How Did Financial Reporting Contribute to the Financial Crisis? Financial Lessons in Mass Deception The Epistemology of the Financial Crisis: Complexity, Causation, Law, and Judgment
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<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/financial-lessons-in-mass-deception/2010/02' rel='bookmark' title='Financial Lessons in Mass Deception'>Financial Lessons in Mass Deception</a></li>
<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/the-epistemology-of-the-financial-crisis-complexity-causation-law-and-judgment/2010/04' rel='bookmark' title='The Epistemology of the Financial Crisis: Complexity, Causation, Law, and Judgment'>The Epistemology of the Financial Crisis: Complexity, Causation, Law, and Judgment</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Video: Bribing vs. signalling &#8211; Marketplace Dept. of Behavioral Economics</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/video-bribing-vs-signalling-marketplace-dept-of-behavioral-economics/2009/11</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/video-bribing-vs-signalling-marketplace-dept-of-behavioral-economics/2009/11#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:32:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>The Long Tailor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Collapse of Society]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Complexity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/video-bribing-vs-signalling-marketplace-dept-of-behavioral-economics/2009/11</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Very funny video featuring Tim Harford, author of The Undercover Economist. Introduction (Via Youtube) The recession has made untamed jungles out of many office environments. Employees have had to adapt their behavior to the changing climate or suffer extinction&#8230; or are there other survival options available to cubicle denizens? Marketplace&#8217;s Dalasie Michaelis and &#8220;Undercover Economist&#8221; [...]
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<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/behavioral-economics-behaving-badly-george-loewenstein-and-peter-ubel/2010/07' rel='bookmark' title='Behavioral Economics: Behaving Badly (George Loewenstein and Peter Ubel)'>Behavioral Economics: Behaving Badly (George Loewenstein and Peter Ubel)</a></li>
<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/how-behavioral-economics-can-help-change-the-fight-against-poverty/2009/12' rel='bookmark' title='How behavioral economics can help change the fight against poverty.'>How behavioral economics can help change the fight against poverty.</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Errors in the Interpretation of the Black Swan philosophy</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/errors-in-the-interpretation-of-the-black-swan-philosophy/2009/11</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/errors-in-the-interpretation-of-the-black-swan-philosophy/2009/11#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:30:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hyperborean</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Life, the Universe and Everything]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nassim Taleb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/?p=1182</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Summary of the problem discussed in The Black Swan (and associated papers): The problem, basically stated (which I have had to repeat continuously) is about the degradation of knowledge when it comes to rare events (”tail events”), with serious consequences in some domains I call “Extremistan” (where these events play a huge role, manifested by [...]
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<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/the-black-swan-nassim-tale/2009/04' rel='bookmark' title='The Black Swans&#8230;'>The Black Swans&#8230;</a></li>
<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/black-swans-complexity-the-collapse-and-the-future/2009/05' rel='bookmark' title='Black Swans, complexity, financial collapse etc.'>Black Swans, complexity, financial collapse etc.</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Complexity In Financial Markets</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/complexity-in-financial-markets/2009/11</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/complexity-in-financial-markets/2009/11#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 19:53:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>The Long Tailor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Collapse of Society]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Complexity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/complexity-in-financial-markets/2009/11</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There&#8217;s been a lot of talk on complexity &#38; financial markets -this paper does the topic justice. Click Here To Learn About Complexity &#38; Financial Markets Abstract (Via Markus K. Brunnermeier &#38;  Martin Oehmke) Should we regulate complex securities, subject them to an FDA-style approval process, or limit who can invest in them? To answer [...]
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<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/didier-sornette-diagnosis-and-prediction-of-market-rebounds-in-financial-markets/2010/04' rel='bookmark' title='Didier Sornette: Diagnosis and Prediction of Market Rebounds in Financial Markets'>Didier Sornette: Diagnosis and Prediction of Market Rebounds in Financial Markets</a></li>
<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/black-swans-complexity-the-collapse-and-the-future/2009/05' rel='bookmark' title='Black Swans, complexity, financial collapse etc.'>Black Swans, complexity, financial collapse etc.</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Lessons from a Faraway land: The effect of spatial distance on creative cognition</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/lessons-from-a-faraway-land-the-effect-of-spatial-distance-on-creative-cognition/2009/11</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/lessons-from-a-faraway-land-the-effect-of-spatial-distance-on-creative-cognition/2009/11#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:15:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>The Long Tailor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Collapse of Society]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Complexity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/lessons-from-a-faraway-land-the-effect-of-spatial-distance-on-creative-cognition/2009/11</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;ve blogged about this before, but I figure I should link to the appropriate study. Key concept:  When a creative task is portrayed as originating from far rather than a close location&#8230;we provide more creative responses. Click Here To Read About: Lessons from a Faraway land: The effect of spatial distance on creative cognition Abstract [...]
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</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Crisis Compels Economists To Reach for New Paradigm! Meet Professor, Geanakoplos</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/crisis-compels-economists-to-reach-for-new-paradigm-meet-professor-geanakoplos/2009/11</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/crisis-compels-economists-to-reach-for-new-paradigm-meet-professor-geanakoplos/2009/11#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:41:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>The Long Tailor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Collapse of Society]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Complexity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/crisis-compels-economists-to-reach-for-new-paradigm-meet-professor-geanakoplos/2009/11</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#8220;For decades policy makers thougth interest rates were the most important indicator of supply and demand in credit markets&#8230;. Now, Mr. Geanakoplos was saying that something else &#8212; lenders&#8217; collateral or margin demands &#8212; could be even more important.&#8221; Now that sounds like an article worth reading. I believe George Soros also recommended looking at [...]
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<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/didier-sornette-the-professor-who-chases-financial-bubbles/2010/03' rel='bookmark' title='Didier Sornette: The Professor Who Chases Financial Bubbles'>Didier Sornette: The Professor Who Chases Financial Bubbles</a></li>
<li><a href='http://www.alphaverse.com/debt-raters-avoid-overhaul-after-crisis/2009/12' rel='bookmark' title='Debt Raters Avoid Overhaul After Crisis'>Debt Raters Avoid Overhaul After Crisis</a></li>
</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Warning: Your Brain Is Killing America’s Capitalism</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/warning-your-brain-is-killing-america%e2%80%99s-capitalism/2009/11</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/warning-your-brain-is-killing-america%e2%80%99s-capitalism/2009/11#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:19:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>The Long Tailor</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Collapse of Society]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market Complexity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/warning-your-brain-is-killing-america%e2%80%99s-capitalism/2009/11</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Very interesting review of &#8220;This time is Different: Eight Centuries Of Financial Folly&#8221; I&#8217;m currently reading this book and I can&#8217;t praise it enough. Click Here To Read: Warning: Your Brain Is Killing America&#8217;s Capitalism Subheading: (Via Marketwatch) Recovery? New bull market? Yes, yes, get your money out of the mattress, out of CDs and [...]
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</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>A historical testimony to the US congress! Or is it?!</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/the-black-swan-casting-pearls-to-swines-or-is-it/2009/09</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/the-black-swan-casting-pearls-to-swines-or-is-it/2009/09#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Sep 2009 22:15:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hyperborean</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nassim Taleb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Societal issues]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/?p=985</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Can you recall a moment when you could honestly say &#8216;I told you so&#8217;, but when no one listens? Well this just might be one of those for me. This Thursday September the 10th marks perhaps a historic development for both Washington and the financial markets. The US Congress&#8217; Committee on Science and Technology held a [...]
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</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Taleb Bets on Hyperinflation, or even Deflation</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/taleb-bets-on-black-swan-deflation-or-even-hyperinflation/2009/06</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/taleb-bets-on-black-swan-deflation-or-even-hyperinflation/2009/06#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Jun 2009 21:25:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hyperborean</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nassim Taleb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/?p=787</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Universa Investments LP, the hedge-fund advised by &#8220;Black Swan&#8221; author Nassim Taleb,  has a new strategy where they&#8217;re betting that the massive stimulus efforts of global governments will lead to hyperinflation. The governments pumping money into the economy cannot prevent hyperinflation, and in the loger run will lead to deflation as well . The strategy has also been reported [...]
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</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Taleb @ Zeitgeist Europe &#8217;09</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/taleb-zeitgeist-europe-09/2009/06</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/taleb-zeitgeist-europe-09/2009/06#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2009 18:03:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hyperborean</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nassim Taleb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/?p=741</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Staying the Course: Part II &#8211; Zeitgeist Europe &#8217;09 The panel explores those improbable events that the marketplace under-assesses but which end having a powerful and unanticipated influence for investors.  Taleb author of brilliant book The Black Swan says “the more you study economics the less competent you’re going to be…. the past is not [...]
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</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Black Swans, complexity, financial collapse etc.</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/black-swans-complexity-the-collapse-and-the-future/2009/05</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/black-swans-complexity-the-collapse-and-the-future/2009/05#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 May 2009 10:38:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hyperborean</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Collapse of Society]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Life, the Universe and Everything]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nassim Taleb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Video]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Petersen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/?p=701</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A very thoughfull guy, John Petersen, looks into the future and explains what our societies are facing with the current transformations onset by the evergrowing complexity in the world. Being a remarkably diverse fellow, Petersen elaborates further on the widely misunderstood impact of what Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls &#8216;The Black Swans&#8217; and gives some other [...]
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</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Let&#8217;s face it; Economists are charlatans!</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/lets-face-it-economists-are-charlatans/2009/05</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/lets-face-it-economists-are-charlatans/2009/05#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 May 2009 16:33:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hyperborean</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nassim Taleb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gaussian Bell Curve]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/?p=404</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[At the New Yorker summit Robert Shiller and Nassim Taleb discuss what to do in such times when the spirits aren&#8217;t brave at all.  Shiller, a Yale economist who famously predicted the last two booms also wrote a book called “Animal Spirits in which he posits that shifts in the economy follow the irrational actions of [...]
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</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Complex systems, the economy and experts&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/complex-systems-the-economy-and-experts/2009/05</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/complex-systems-the-economy-and-experts/2009/05#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 May 2009 10:42:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hyperborean</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Edge.org]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nassim Taleb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial Crisis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/?p=383</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After all, we are witnessing the Waterloo of Wall Street. So, ironically, it was in the Canadian province of Ontario, in the small town of Waterloo, that a meeting was convened to shed new light on the world&#8217;s financial debacle. In a densely packed conference schedule, the general approach was to take measure of the [...]
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</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Taleb&#8217;s map of &#8216;The Limits of Statistics&#8217;</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/talebs-map-of-the-limits-of-statistics/2009/05</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/talebs-map-of-the-limits-of-statistics/2009/05#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 May 2009 17:00:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hyperborean</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[In Dutch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nassim Taleb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Long Tail]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NNT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Randomness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Unpredictable Events]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/?p=272</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Voor als de schemering precies de juiste gloed van roze heeft; raadpleeg deze essay van Taleb. Het gaat het over allerlei &#8216;fallacies&#8217; (drogredenen) en valkuilen waar men te maken heeft in sociale situaties: o.a. de problemen met het bepalen van de juiste distributies (in bepaalde sociale situaties waar men foutief de normale distributie veronderstelt)  confirmation bias &#8216;silent [...]
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</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>&#8220;Are you gonna bark all day, little doggy, or are you gonna bite?&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/are-you-gonna-bark-all-day-little-doggy-or-are-you-gonna-bite/2009/05</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/are-you-gonna-bark-all-day-little-doggy-or-are-you-gonna-bite/2009/05#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 May 2009 22:33:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hyperborean</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Nassim Taleb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mathematics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/?p=249</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is exactly the phrase that crosses my mind when reading the critics of Taleb&#8217;s Ten principles for a Black Swan-proof world, mostly from &#8216;distinguished&#8217; financial &#8216;experts&#8217;. But the dog can bite in this case! I can feel their wrath, often mere desperation and basically, a persistent lack of objective argumentation against Taleb&#8217;s postulated theory of inherently unpredictable [...]
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</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>And then God gave upon thee, The Stone Talebs&#8217;</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/and-then-god-gave-upon-thee-the-stone-talebs/2009/04</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/and-then-god-gave-upon-thee-the-stone-talebs/2009/04#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Apr 2009 21:59:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hyperborean</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Nassim Taleb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ludic Fallacy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Narrative Fallacy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Statistical regression fallacy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/?p=228</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Okay, let&#8217;s try to elect the mediocre thinking to a higher level and see what it is that constitutes the human understading of the world. Or rather, what it is that doesn&#8217;t. But, isn&#8217;t that a bit too enthousiastic, one might ask?! Well, it depends who you ask I guess. Nassim Taleb, a Greek amongst [...]
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Taleb&#8217;s Appendix &#8211; Empirical Data for Black Swans</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/talebs-mathematical-appendix-empirical-data-for-the-black-swans/2009/04</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/talebs-mathematical-appendix-empirical-data-for-the-black-swans/2009/04#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Apr 2009 18:22:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Hyperborean</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Nassim Taleb]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Improbability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mathematics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Statistics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/?p=236</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Role and Nature of High Impact Events (Black Swans): Technical Commentary and Empirical Data  -  Written by N. N. Taleb This is an appendix to the Edge piece.  It is striking how some simple, simple tests (of stability of the 4th moment and failures of stress testing) can invalidate tens of thousand of research papers [...]
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</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Ten principles for a Black Swan-proof world</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/ten-principles-for-a-black-swan-proof-world/2009/04</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/ten-principles-for-a-black-swan-proof-world/2009/04#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Apr 2009 17:35:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Administrator</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nassim Taleb]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/?p=185</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small. Nothing should ever become too big to fail. Evolution in economic life helps those with the maximum amount of hidden risks – and hence the most fragile – become the biggest. 2. No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains. Whatever may need to be [...]
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</ol>]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Black Swans&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://www.alphaverse.com/the-black-swan-nassim-tale/2009/04</link>
		<comments>http://www.alphaverse.com/the-black-swan-nassim-tale/2009/04#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Apr 2009 15:28:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Administrator</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Fora.tv]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Black Swan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Long Now Foundation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nassim Taleb]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.alphaverse.com/?p=177</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[(This is the canonical black swan definition from the canonical &#8220;black swan&#8221; guy.) Dispatches from Extremistan (Nassim Taleb talk) A &#8220;black swan,&#8221; Taleb explained, is an event which is 1) Hard to predict; 2) Highly consequential; 3) Wrongly retro-predicted. We pretend we know why the big event happened, and so entrench our inability to deal [...]
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