Category Archives: The Black Swan
Is Honesty A Conscious Decision?
The fellows over at The Situationist blog have found another interesting read (via Seed Magazine). This article is about honesty & whether being honest is a conscious decision. I think the scientists behind these experiments need to add more participants to future studies. I suggest the following opposing participants; Buffett & Madoff. Click Here To [...]
Less Is More: Accuracy vs Prediction In Modeling
Interesting paper on the trade offs between accuracy and precision in modeling (think excel)! Click Here To Download Less Is More: Accuracy vs Prediction In Modeling Introduction (By Susan Bachman, Coral Pipeline, & Marry Goodreau Stoner Associates Inc) As computers have increased in speed and capacity, pipeline modeling software has kept pace. Modelers can simulate [...]
Give Reform A Bit Of A Nudge (a la Thaler)
A nice fellow implores the Australian Government to use “nudge” oriented reforms. Click Here To Read: Give Reform A Bit Of A Nudge (a la Thaler) Excerpt (Via Andrew Leigh) In Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth and Happiness, Chicago University academics Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein argue that economists and politicians have overestimated the [...]
[Oh No!] Five Myths About Our Land of Opportunity
I wonder what Buffett would think about this….Makes me think of the Ovarian Lottery Click Here For An Expanded Version of 5 Myths About Our Land Of Opportunity Introduction (Via Brookings) Americans have always believed that their country is unique in providing the opportunity to get ahead. Just combine hard work with a bit of [...]
Jim Chanos Presentation: Ten Lessons from the Financial Crisis that investors will soon forget
A big thanks to Guru Focus & My Investing Notebook for finding this.
Video: Bribing vs. signalling – Marketplace Dept. of Behavioral Economics
Very funny video featuring Tim Harford, author of The Undercover Economist. Introduction (Via Youtube) The recession has made untamed jungles out of many office environments. Employees have had to adapt their behavior to the changing climate or suffer extinction… or are there other survival options available to cubicle denizens? Marketplace’s Dalasie Michaelis and “Undercover Economist” [...]
Errors in the Interpretation of the Black Swan philosophy
Summary of the problem discussed in The Black Swan (and associated papers): The problem, basically stated (which I have had to repeat continuously) is about the degradation of knowledge when it comes to rare events (”tail events”), with serious consequences in some domains I call “Extremistan” (where these events play a huge role, manifested by [...]