New Cities with New Rules
This talk was the first in a series of public discussions of an idea that Romer has been working on for two years.
His economic theory of history explains phenomena such as the constant improvement of the human standard of living by looking primarily at just two forms of innovative ideas: technology and rules.
Technologies rearrange materials with ingenious recipes and formulas. More people create more technologies, which in turn generates more people. In recent decades technology has enabled the “demographic transition” which lowers birthrates and raises income per person even higher as population levels off.
Rules structure the interactions between people. As population density increased, the idea of ownership became an important rule. A supporting rule for managing violations replaced the old idea of deadly vengeance with awarding damages instead: simply shifting value replaced destroying value. For the idea of open science, recognition replaced ownership as the main event, which means that whoever publishes first is most rewarded, and that accelerates science.
Rules can amplify or stifle technological progress. China was the world leader in inventing new technologies until about a thousand years ago, when centralized dynastic rules slowed innovation almost to a stop.
Romer notes that business keeps evolving as new companies introduce new rule sets. The good ideas are copied, and workers migrate from failing companies to the new and old ones where the new rules are working well. The same goes for countries. Starting about 1970, China took some of the effective rules of Hong Kong (which was managed from afar by England) and set up four special economic zones along the coast operating as imitation Hong Kongs. They worked so well that China rolled out the scheme for the whole country, and its Gross Domestic Product took off. “Hong Kong was the most successful economic development program in history.”
Romer suggests that we rethink sovereignty (respect borders, but maybe create new systems of administrative control); rethink citizenship (allowing perhaps for voice without residency as well as residency without voice); and rethink scale (instead of focusing on nations, focus on new cities.)
If nations are willing to experiment along these lines, they can create new places, places that can give more people access to the kind of rules that they would like to live and work under, and places that can sustain the historical process of entry and innovation in national systems of rules.
The idea is getting some traction in the developing world. This summer Romer will launch an institute and website for further exploration and eventual application of the idea.
One miracle of cities is that they sometimes renew themselves brilliantly. This could be a whole new form of that.
–Stewart Brand
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Peter Hall, former head of the Fabian Society in the UK, advanced a similar “Freeport Solution” in the late 1970s as an idea to breathe life into Britain’s then ailing economy. His proposal inspired the enterprise zone initiatives advanced by conservative governments in the UK and USA during the 1980s.
Since then, Openworld (www.openworld.com) has worked on a range of similar initiatives in areas of poverty and high unemployment. Success-sharing free zones can apply a portion of the land value gains resulting from transparency-enhancing business climate reforms with social ventures, including microvouchers for eLearning and eHealthcare. Far from being colonialism era-enclaves, the zones can be privately developed under competitive global tenders, with developers obliged under “build-operate-transfer” style concession agreements to convey assets to workers, residents, and learning/health care institutions of the sponsoring countries.
As public sector bureaucracies reach their fiscal limits, the new generation of free economic zones can pioneer sustainable institutional innovations that can replicate and scale far beyond their initial boundaries. Contractual, transnational systems for ensuring world-class dispute resolution and other crucial services can bring rapid growth to now-troubled areas, and set the stage for an updated version of the Hanseatic League to compete with failed and failing state institutions.
The new cities that Paul Romer envisages can emerge as magnets for knowledge workers and other mobile creatives who will be increasingly shortchanged by sclerotic, bankrupt, and increasingly kleptocratic governments.
Best,
Mark Frazier
Openworld, Inc.
“Awakening assets for good”
@openworld (twitter)
Thanks for the comment Mark! Great insight.