Tag Archives: The Black Swan
Errors in the Interpretation of the Black Swan philosophy
Summary of the problem discussed in The Black Swan (and associated papers): The problem, basically stated (which I have had to repeat continuously) is about the degradation of knowledge when it comes to rare events (”tail events”), with serious consequences in some domains I call “Extremistan” (where these events play a huge role, manifested by [...]
A historical testimony to the US congress! Or is it?!
Can you recall a moment when you could honestly say ‘I told you so’, but when no one listens? Well this just might be one of those for me. This Thursday September the 10th marks perhaps a historic development for both Washington and the financial markets. The US Congress’ Committee on Science and Technology held a [...]
Taleb Bets on Hyperinflation, or even Deflation
Universa Investments LP, the hedge-fund advised by “Black Swan” author Nassim Taleb, has a new strategy where they’re betting that the massive stimulus efforts of global governments will lead to hyperinflation. The governments pumping money into the economy cannot prevent hyperinflation, and in the loger run will lead to deflation as well . The strategy has also been reported [...]
Taleb @ Zeitgeist Europe ’09
Staying the Course: Part II – Zeitgeist Europe ’09 The panel explores those improbable events that the marketplace under-assesses but which end having a powerful and unanticipated influence for investors. Taleb author of brilliant book The Black Swan says “the more you study economics the less competent you’re going to be…. the past is not [...]
Black Swans, complexity, financial collapse etc.
A very thoughfull guy, John Petersen, looks into the future and explains what our societies are facing with the current transformations onset by the evergrowing complexity in the world. Being a remarkably diverse fellow, Petersen elaborates further on the widely misunderstood impact of what Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls ‘The Black Swans’ and gives some other [...]
“Are you gonna bark all day, little doggy, or are you gonna bite?”
This is exactly the phrase that crosses my mind when reading the critics of Taleb’s Ten principles for a Black Swan-proof world, mostly from ‘distinguished’ financial ‘experts’. But the dog can bite in this case! I can feel their wrath, often mere desperation and basically, a persistent lack of objective argumentation against Taleb’s postulated theory of inherently unpredictable [...]
And then God gave upon thee, The Stone Talebs’
Okay, let’s try to elect the mediocre thinking to a higher level and see what it is that constitutes the human understading of the world. Or rather, what it is that doesn’t. But, isn’t that a bit too enthousiastic, one might ask?! Well, it depends who you ask I guess. Nassim Taleb, a Greek amongst [...]